Martin Vander Weyer
Future Perfect
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
By Nate Silver
Allen Lane/The Penguin Press 534pp £25
This is one for my desert-island longlist – a book to re-read section by section for as long as it takes until I’m sure I have grasped the whole of Nate Silver’s thesis on ‘the art and science of prediction’. If that opportunity arises I will do so with pleasure, because Silver unravels the complexities of his specialism with elegance, wit and a range of entertaining examples, from baseball and poker to earthquakes and hurricanes. On first diving in, however, The Signal and the Noise is like the kind of sermon from the pulpit that brilliantly illuminates as you listen to it, yet somehow evaporates in the mind a few minutes later. So my advice is to go slowly – and look closely at the diagrams. It’ll be worth the effort.
Let’s start with the title and the author: ‘the signal’ is whatever turns out to be the true indicator of a significant trend, the pattern that gives the clue as to what the future is really going to look like. But the challenge for forecasters is to separate the signal
Sign Up to our newsletter
Receive free articles, highlights from the archive, news, details of prizes, and much more.@Lit_Review
Follow Literary Review on Twitter
Twitter Feed
London's East End was long synonymous with poverty and sweatshops, while its West End was associated with glamour and high society. But when it came to the fashion industry, were the differences really so profound?
Sharman Kadish - Winkle-pickers & Bum Freezers
Sharman Kadish: Winkle-pickers & Bum Freezers - Fashion City: How Jewish Londoners Shaped Global Style; Fashion City: ...
literaryreview.co.uk
In 1982, Donald Rumsfeld presented Saddam Hussein with a pair of golden spurs. Two decades later he was dropping bunker-busting bombs on his palaces.
Where did the US-Iraqi relationship go wrong?
Rory Mccarthy - The Case of the Vanishing Missiles
Rory Mccarthy: The Case of the Vanishing Missiles - The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the United States and the ...
literaryreview.co.uk
Barbara Comyns was a dog breeder, a house painter, a piano restorer, a landlady... And a novelist.
@nclarke14 on the lengths 20th-century women writers had to go to make ends meet:
Norma Clarke - Her Family & Other Animals
Norma Clarke: Her Family & Other Animals - Barbara Comyns: A Savage Innocence by Avril Horner
literaryreview.co.uk