It was Harry S Truman who famously demanded to talk only to one-handed economists: he was fed-up with what he saw as ‘on the one hand … but on the other’ non-answers. In the same way, politicians and an impatient media seek excessive certainty and simplicity from natural scientists; they have little time for nuance or admissions of doubt.

As far as they are concerned, it is ‘settled science’ that the earth is set to warm significantly in coming decades as a result of man-made action and that this will have a catastrophic impact on humanity; it is equally ‘settled economics’ that massive reductions in carbon dioxide emissions are required as soon as possible to mitigate the costs of global warming.

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